Mastering Load Forecasting with Our Cutting-Edge Weather Risk Tool

A Deep Dive into Unprecedented Cold-Snap Demand in New Zealand and Our Innovative Solutions


The electric power industry has been undergoing a significant transformation in recent years. With the increasing emphasis on renewable energy sources and the urgency to combat climate change, it is crucial for businesses to adapt and evolve. One of the key challenges in this regard is the accurate forecasting of energy demand. TESLA has been at the forefront of this transformation by leveraging innovative tools and technology. In this blog post, we will explore how our advanced weather risk tool helped us accurately predict the recent unseasonably cold weather conditions and its impact on the energy demand in New Zealand.

The Unprecedented Cold Snap and Its Impact on Energy Demand

Recently, our client Transpower published a weekly market moment report, which highlighted an unusual cold snap that drove national energy demand up to levels not typically seen in March. TESLA’s state-of-the-art weather risk tool played a crucial role in understanding the significance of these unseasonably cold temperatures on energy demand. Utilizing historical weather data from 2010 to 2022, our tool generated independent load forecasts for each day, including the period of the 29th to 31st of March.

How TESLA’s Weather Risk Tool Works

Our weather risk tool generates load forecasts for a seven-day period both backward and forward of each individual day. For instance, the 29th of March 2023 would have 180 load forecasts (15 x 12), as there are forecasts generated over 12 years for 15 days. The forecasts are then ranked by percentile for each day.

The 99th percentile indicates that 99% of the 180 solutions fall below the curve, while the 50% curve represents that 50% of the 180 underlying solutions fall below this curve. The actual MW load from the 29th to 31st of March showed that the weather inputs resulted in the load exceeding the 99th percentile of all 12 years of historical data during the morning peaks. This can be attributed to the unseasonably low-temperature inputs driving the demand up to levels not typically observed at this time of year.

Aligning with NIWA’s Seasonal Outlook

These observations align with NIWA’s seasonal outlook, which suggests the possibility of more variable temperatures during March-June. TESLA’s weather risk tool proves to be a valuable asset in ensuring accurate load forecasting even in the face of unpredictable weather patterns.

Source Material and Additional Information

For readers interested in exploring the original weekly market moment report published by Transpower, you can access the document below:

Contact Us

If you would like to learn more about TESLA’s innovative solutions for accurate load forecasting and how we can help you, please do not hesitate to contact us.


As the energy industry continues to evolve, accurate load forecasting becomes increasingly essential. TESLA remains committed to leveraging cutting-edge technology and innovative solutions to address these challenges. Our weather risk tool exemplifies our dedication to providing accurate and reliable load forecasting to our clients, enabling them to make informed decisions and optimize their energy management strategies in an ever-changing landscape.

Author: Coco Ding